What the media reported vs what the World Bank said
The Ministry has noted media reports that misrepresent what the World Bank wrote in its October 2026 Nigeria Development Update (NDU). The reports differ from the NDU on three points:
1) Misreading of a statistical term
The World Bank said: net errors and omissions of –US$12.4 billion in the first half of 2026, a standard balancing item in the balance of payments.
The media reported: a “$12.4 billion unexplained gap” in Nigeria’s external accounts.
2) A partial hypothesis presented as the cause
The World Bank said: the residual “likely” reflects unrepatriated oil proceeds only “in part”.
The media reported: the gap was linked to oil earnings “not repatriated to the country”.
3) A caveated observation presented as a finding.
The World Bank said: it identified no amount, company or cargo, and acknowledged that data gaps may have contributed.
The headlines implied: that US$12.4 billion in oil earnings had been lost or withheld.
The same NDU confirms that the reforms are working: a current account surplus of US$12.0 billion in the first half of 2026, and gross reserves up from US$45.5 billion at end-2025 to US$53.8 billion at end-August 2026. These facts were overshadowed by the media’s headline framing. An economy losing US$12 billion in six months would not be adding over US$8 billion to its reserves.
What “net errors and omissions” means, and what it does not
A country’s external accounts are reflected in its balance of payments, which records all economic transactions between residents and the rest of the world through the current, capital and financial accounts. It is not a bank account belonging to the government, a company or an individual.
It means the different data sources behind the balance of payments do not fully reconcile. Each transaction is recorded twice, once as trade or income and once as the payment that settles it, from separate sources such as customs, oil liftings, banks and others. Whatever does not match is booked as “net errors and omissions”.
It does not mean money has gone missing, been stolen or been withheld. It is not an account or a sum held anywhere. It only shows that data sources disagree, not why.
Nigeria’s past trend
Nigeria has recorded a negative residual in seven of the last eight years, across different oil prices, exchange-rate regimes and administrations. According to World Bank data, the residual has ranged from +US$17.0 billion in 2020 to –US$24.9 billion in 2023.
Global examples
Large residuals are normal, even in countries with the most advanced statistical systems. The United States recorded –US$138 billion in 2023 and –US$97 billion in 2025. The United Kingdom recorded +US$23.6 billion in 2024, and Brazil –US$5.7 billion. In none of these countries are such figures interpreted as missing money; to do so would misread what the data represents.
Some factors that may account for the H1 2026 residual
• Diaspora remittances. Remittances are recorded as inflows in the current account, but an estimated US$10 billion a year moves through informal channels or stays abroad, never reaching banks or reserves. The inflow is counted; the cash is not seen; the difference lands in the residual.
• Informal cross-border trade. Imports and exports across land borders, and services such as education, health and digital payments, are under-recorded.
• Export proceeds delayed, retained or pledged. Cargoes are recorded when lifted but often paid for 30–90 days later. Oil companies and their partners may lawfully hold their share of proceeds abroad, and crude-for-loan cargoes repay lenders offshore. These are not leakages. They show up in the residual when the related foreign assets or debt repayments of the whole economy, not just government, are not fully recorded.
• Timing and provisional data. The figures are preliminary, and the residual is routinely revised as company and bank returns are received.
Conclusion
The Ministry, working with the Central Bank of Nigeria and other relevant agencies, will continue to strengthen the recording of external transactions. We encourage commentators and media organisations to seek clarification from subject-matter experts on technical financial matters and to avoid hasty and invalid conclusions.
Signed:
Maryann Duke-Okon
Senior Special Assistant On Communications & Press Secretary to the honorable Minister Of Finance & Coordinating Minister Of The Economy.
Federal Ministry of Finance
FCT, Abuja